Fed: Export earnings to fall for most commodities in 2009-10

AAP General News (Australia)
12-15-2009
Fed: Export earnings to fall for most commodities in 2009-10

CANBERRA, Dec 15 AAP - A higher Australian dollar and a worse than expected winter
crop in the current season mean farm export earnings are likely to fall in 2009-10, a
report from the government's commodities forecaster says.

Farm exports are expected to drop six per cent to $30 billion this financial year,
after they rose significantly by 16 per cent to $32 billion in 2008-09, the report from
the Australian Bureau of Agriculture Resource Economics says.

"The forecast decline in farm export earnings in 2009-10 mainly reflects the adverse
effects of a significantly higher Australian exchange rate, especially against the US
dollar, and a downward revision to winter crop production in the current season," ABARE
deputy executive director Terry Sheales said in a statement.

However, the December issue of ABARE's Australian Commodities report predicts farm
export earnings will still be nine per cent higher than the $27.5 billion figure recorded
in 2007-08.

Commodities forecasted to rise include raw cotton, sugar, rice and peas.

However, the drop in export earnings is expected to come from a decrease in earnings
from wheat, barley, canola and livestock products.

Earnings from energy and mineral exports are also forecast to drop - by 20 per cent
to about $129 billion this financial year, revised upward from $123 billion in September.

Mine production is the only sector to rise, by seven per cent in 2009-10.

Altogether, Australia's commodity exports are forecast to decrease by 18 per cent to
$163 billion, after the previous financial year's rise of 33 per cent to $197 billion,
in 2008-09.

AAP srj/dep

KEYWORD: ABARE EXPORTS

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